26 May RAPID RECOVERY FOR PROPERTY MARKETS IN COUNTIES WITH STRICT LOCKDOWNS
Some fascinating analysis by Mike DelPrete, a global real estate tech strategist, has shown how property markets across the world have reacted to different lockdown situations.
The findings reveal that the longer and more restrictive the lockdown, the more rapid the housing market bounce back.
Countries with stringent lockdowns
Of the seven countries analysed, Italy and the UK had the most severe lockdowns. Yet these countries have seen the strongest increase in listings in the initial period after lockdown restrictions were eased.
The data shows that British and Italian housing markets had the most ‘lost’ listings with a drop of up to 90% in the UK. In other countries, there was little or no change to the markets.
Countries with more relaxed measures
Meanwhile, in countries such as Australia, the United States and Canada, the drop in new listings was only down by about 40 to 50%. In these countries, lockdowns have been far less stringent.
However, if you look at individual states in the US, there are big variations. Pennsylvania, Michigan and New York have all see the same 90% decrease in listings as the UK and Italy.
Sweden and the Netherlands had less restrictive lockdowns than elsewhere in Europe and saw only minor reductions in listings.
Mike DelPrete commented: “The Netherlands, in particular, hasn’t seen a significant drop in new listings; rather, it’s enjoying annual highs. Interestingly, new listing volumes in Sweden have seen a limited, delayed decline – about a month after most other markets – of 20 per cent. The evidence suggests that once restrictions are lifted in the hardest hit markets, new listings rebound quickly. However, new listings are only one component of a full market recovery. Buyer demand, leading to completed real estate transactions, will come over time and it’s unclear how long that recovery will take.”
Property market bounces back in England
In England, the property market is once again open for business after six and a half weeks in lockdown.
Rightmove reported visits to its website returned quickly with 5.2 million visits on the day the market reopened. At the same time, sales enquiries doubled in just 24 hours, and there was the highest number of enquiries from renters since last September.
Estate agents and property consultants, Carter Jonas, reported that on the day the property market reopened, there was a 72% increase in telephone inquiries on the previous week and email inquiries more than doubled.
CBRE commented that the pent-up demand after a period of limbo is likely to generate a spike of activity in the housing market. And although there is some uncertainty over house prices this year, most analysts feel the property market will make a strong recovery by 2021.
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